The Wall Street Journal is reporting that an executive order shuttering the US Department of Education (DOE) could come as early as this morning (Thursday). While this move is not the least bit unanticipated, the problems it creates are still significant.
Reality check: The cabinet-level department cannot be dissolved by executive order. The only way that the DOE gets closed is the same way it was created: by an act of Congress. Any proposed legislation attempting to shut down the agency would need a minimum of 60 votes in the Senate, a majority that does not exist. This fight is far from over.
Democrats in both the House and the Senate sent a letter to the Acting Secretary earlier this week demanding more information. Among other things, the letter said, “We will not stand by and allow the impact that dismantling the Department of Education would have on the nation’s students, parents, borrowers, educators, and communities. Congress created the Department to ensure all students in America have equal access to a high-quality education and that their civil rights are protected no matter their zip code. The Department is in the middle of implementing the FAFSA for the 2025-2026 school year and cannot afford any disruptions to that critical work. The Department also oversees vital federal aid programs that help students from low-income backgrounds, students with disabilities, student veterans, students experiencing homelessness, rural students, educators, and parents in need of childcare across the country. To further these activities, the Department maintains sensitive, personally identifiable information about these students and their families, which must be protected from people bent on ending these critical programs created over decades through bipartisan laws passed by Congress.“
As with any executive order signed by this president, a number of agencies, including the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) have promised to file a lawsuit to prevent the department from being shuttered. No school is going to be shuttered tomorrow. What changes might be coming from the 2025-26 school year are more uncertain.
One thing that will happen is that state departments of education will be overwhelmed as more responsibility falls on their shoulders. State education agencies would be immediately burdened with absorbing responsibilities related to funding administration, data collection, and potentially even some aspects of civil rights oversight, without a clear transition plan or additional resources in the short term. States will struggle to handle this increased load, leading to inconsistencies and inequalities across the nation.
School boards and university regents are also going to feel the pain. Educational institutions would face immediate confusion about who to turn to for guidance, funding, and compliance issues. The dismantling of the Department would create a period of administrative chaos as schools and universities try to navigate a new landscape without a central federal education agency. Lawsuits, which few universities can afford, are inevitable. Many smaller departments of study could end and even larger programs could find their budgets severely restrained.
The latest draft of the order requires that all funding be related to NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) standards. Often referred to as the ‘nation’s report card,’ US schools haven’t been doing too good a job with those standards.
Reading: Long-term trends in NAEP reading scores for 9-year-olds show a significant decline between 2020 and 2023, with scores in 2023 being similar to levels from 1990. For 13-year-olds, reading scores in 2023 were the lowest in NAEP history. While there was some progress in reading scores between the early 1970s and the early 2010s, recent data indicates a setback, especially after the pandemic.
Mathematics: Similar to reading, long-term NAEP math scores for both 9-year-olds and 13-year-olds declined between 2020 and 2023. Math scores for 13-year-olds in 2023 were also the lowest in NAEP history. Math scores had generally improved from the 1970s until around 2010, but have shown stagnation and recent declines.
8th Grade Math and Reading: Looking at NAEP data for 8th graders, while there was improvement between the early 1990s and the 2010s, scores in both reading and math have largely stagnated since the early 2010s. More recent data (post-2020) reflects declines, particularly in math.
When looking at international comparisons, the picture is no better. PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) assesses 15-year-olds in reading, mathematics, and science. US scores in PISA mathematics have consistently been around or below the OECD average. Reading and science scores have been closer to the OECD average, but there hasn’t been significant improvement over the past two decades. TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study) assesses 4th and 8th graders in math and science. US scores in TIMSS have shown some improvement over the long term (since the 1990s), but more recent trends indicate stagnation, and in some cases, slight declines compared to top-performing nations.
All the talk around closing the DOE has focused on ‘returning power to the local schools.’ However, there is no accurate data that would indicate that such a move would provide any improvement. The more likely outcome is that national accumulated scores will fall more dramatically as students in poorer regions lose access to the programs and funding that support them. Education levels are more likely to vary wildly from one state to another.
This is a battle worth fighting. Our country was once the bastion of higher education and leading research. Now, most polls find us in the middle, at best, and too often toward the bottom compared to other industrialized nations.
Your legislators are anticipating your phone calls. Don’t disappoint them.
