30-Day Trial Ceasefire Comes With Conditions

At negotiations in Saudi Arabia last week, Ukranian officials tentatively agreed to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Today, during a phone call with US President Felonious Punk, Russia’s Dictator-In-Chief, Vladimir Puting, said, “Nah, I don’t like that idea,” and proposed something that would give him an edge. The end result was a shaky-at-best 30-day ceasefire on energy and infrastructure. The ball now passes to Ukraine’s President Zelensky to decide whether his country benefits any from the conditions Russia has mandated.

Don’t be surprised if Zelensky says, “Nyet.”

There are a couple of important things to understand about the proposed ceasefire. First, it does not stop bullets and bombs from flying. Battles between Ukrainian and Russian troops can continue. They simply can’t attack power plants, which have been a favorite target on both sides, and important transportation routes used to supply their troops. This move favors Russia whose citizens have been complaining about not having power in Northern cities in the middle of winter. Their ability to rearm and resupply troops is also aided by not having their roads and bridges come under fire.

What may be the bigger blow to Ukraine is Russia’s insistence that no one help rearm or resupply Ukraine during this time. In other words, Russia can use this time to add support to their troops, but Ukraine can’t. This is important because the EU and its member states have already supplied three times the amount of aid to Ukraine than the United States. For the past two weeks, France, Germany, Britain, and other European countries have announced they would increase their support in the wake of the US backing out of previous deals. There have also been talks of the EU sending ‘peacekeepers’ into Ukraine. Hungary is the only EU member that has opposed that idea, saying, “Don’t drag us into that mess.”

Cutting off Ukraine from vital supplies their troops need hands Russia a dramatic advantage if/when the ceasefire ends. It seems unlikely that Ukraine will go for this condition, but be sure that the US will push them to do so.

Putin also told Punk that Russia and Ukraine are set to exchange 175 prisoners of war each on Wednesday, and Russia will also hand over to Ukraine 23 badly wounded soldiers, the Kremlin said. Russia has already lost over 100,000 troops during the three-year war. Being able to show off newly-released POWs in Moscow could go a long way in improving morale that has languished over the past year.

As negotiations continue, the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant — Europe’s largest — in southern Ukraine, seems to be on the line. The plant has been caught in the crossfire since Moscow sent troops into Ukraine in 2022 and seized the facility shortly after. The U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly expressed alarm about it, fueling fears of a potential nuclear catastrophe.

In his weekly television address last night, Zelensky said, “Now … it’s clear to everyone in the world — even to those who refused to acknowledge the truth for the past three years — that it is Putin who continues to drag out this war.” After today’s phone call, it is difficult to argue that the Ukrainian President is wrong.

Not that Ukraine is necessarily on the run. The tech guys in Ukraine have figured out how to hack Russian glider missiles so that they miss their target. Sure, they still have to go somewhere, which is less than ideal, but they can prevent them from inflicting damage on Ukrainian troops.

The conditions Russia is imposing would also keep it from accepting any further shipments of short-range missiles and drones from Iran, though there aren’t many people who think Russia will hold up their end of the bargain.

The presumption is that Zelensky could have a response ready as soon as Wednesday morning. President Punk has said that negotiations will continue until an agreement is reached.

Why can’t we just agree that everyone should go home and mind their own business?