Maintaining Dominance In The Air

Here we go, into the wild, blue yonder…” Nothing makes a visual or auditory impression quite like the aircraft of the US Air Force and Navy. They are loud, they are fast, and they’re hella impressive in a flyover at your favorite sporting event. US aircraft since WWII have held a place of dominance that demanded respect and, in some cases, fear from around the world. For America’s enemies, there’s nothing quite like the sight of a couple of F-35s dropping out of the clouds to indicate that one’s day and/or life is about to end badly.

Air superiority is the name of the game in modern warfare. Those who have it are at a strong advantage. Those who don’t, are in for a world of hurt, as Ukraine found out in the early days of their war with Russia. ‘Superiority’ is a moving target, however. The F-22, despite having fewer than 200 craft in existence, is still considered the most aircraft with superior stealth, maneuverability, and sensor fusion. The F-35 is a multi-role fighter with advanced stealth and sensor fusion.

These two planes have single-handedly practically eliminated any situation that might result in a dogfight, ala Tom Cruise and Top Gun. Modern military aircraft are aware of every plane within 30-40 miles of them in any direction. There’s no inverted cockpit-to-cockpit nonsense. Over time, the sensory capability of these planes has only gotten better and smaller. China and Russia dream of having a plane that would compete.

If you think you saw a B-2 Spirit, no, you didn’t. You blinked and it was gone.

Still, there’s no time to sit idly by and wait. China is developing a new stealth bomber, the H-20, which could potentially rival the B-2. We know that they’re working on a new fighter, but no one has yet seen it in the air to judge its capabilities. China is trying desperately to catch up, so we have an obligation to stay a couple of steps ahead.

That’s why yesterday’s announcement awarding the contract for a new fighter, the F-47, to Boeing wasn’t as surprising as some might think. Industry insiders have known the reqs for the new fighter have been out there for several years now. The major players have been going back and forth with the Pentagon as designs have been considered, scrapped, recalculated, and redrawn multiple times over. Yesterday’s announcement was going to happen regardless of who was president.

What seemed to catch a lot of people by surprise was that Boeing was chosen as the primary contract. Boeing? Really? The company whose planes keep losing parts such as doors while still in the air? The company whose failed space capsule left two astronauts stuck on the International Space Station for nine months? That Boeing? Yes, that Boeing.

First off, let’s stay aware that Boeing’s commercial business and its military business are two distinctly different and separate entities. There’s no crossover, there’s no sharing of major facilities, and they each have a separate set of engineers. Yes, it’s all one company and one stock price, but let’s at least entertain the notion that the folks on the military side of the house know what they’re doing.

Second, despite all of yesterday’s rhetoric from the president and secretary of defense, awarding Boeing the contract was less likely to be as political as it might have looked. The Pentagon has long held to the belief that they don’t want all of their production eggs in one basket. They want to maintain the ability to ramp up production quickly in the event of an attack and that means having more than one production location. When the announcement was made, Lockheed Martin’s stock price barely moved. This wasn’t a shock.

What we don’t know at this point is where the new plane might be built. Boeing has two facilities in Washington state, in Everett (the largest) and Renton, as well as another in South Carolina. No one on either side of the conversation has said whether the F-47 will be built in one of these plants, or possibly a new facility.

Retooling one of the existing plants seems less likely. With all the work the company has to do just to keep the 787 in the air, it seems unlikely that they would give up one of those production facilities for a new project.

Boeing has formerly had production facilties in Wichita, KS, and could, in theory, build a new facility there. The advantage would be a population of engineers that is already familiar with military aviation. The disadvantage would be the ramp up time to getting a facility built and online by the time that the fighter is ready. If the choice of a location has not already been made, be sure that the battle to secure such a facility is likely to be intense.

Also be aware that this president is not likely to ever see an F-47 in the air while he is in office. There are still a ton of details to be worked out, the type of details that aren’t made public. Expect both Boeing and the Pentagon to largely maintain radio silence on the matter until production is already well underway. It could easily be eight to ten years before the first airplane hits the ozone.

At the same time, F-35 and B-2 production continues at a normal pace. There are plans for a B-21 in the making, but the Pentagon is not ready to award that contract just yet. There are more pieces to this puzzle than one wants to imagine.

There is also a heavy emphasis on drone production that continues. Unmanned aircraft can be built at a significantly lower cost and are capable of delivering just as much damage as a manned aircraft. The wars in both Ukrain and Gaza have provided an ample testing ground for development in those aircraft.

A separate Navy contract for its version of the NGAD fighter is still under competition between Northrop Grumman and Boeing. While the F-35 comes in three different configurations to accomodate both the Navy and the Air Force, it seems unlikely that the F-47 will repeat that challenge.

We’ve been watching the development of military aircraft for over 30 years and the F-47 is the next step in what is likely to be a long progression. This is not your father’s (or Tom Cruise’s) fighter jet. This is an aircraft designed for a new set of pilots who are still trying to figure out how to maneuver middle school. There will be challenges, but we have little choice but to move forward.

One of the many lessons we learned from Pearl Harbor was to never let anyone think that they can overtake us from the air. That means that, despite what seems like an absolutely unreasonable cost, we have to stay ahead. Having the best today is not insurance for tomorrow. All of us who like peace need to understand this: We need the F-47.