Time To Stock Up

How much do you consume in 72 hours? If you were to be completely cut off from the rest of civilization for three days or more, would you survive? Should the power grid go down in your area, do you have plans for an alternative? These are the questions one finds oneself asking as the European Union released an advisory recommending that everyone in Europe should have at least three days’ worth of supplies “in case of extreme disruptions.”

What is an ‘extreme disruption?’ War is certainly the first thing that might pop into one’s mind, but that’s definitely not the only thing that could dramatically interrupt lives as we know it. Think back to the first days of the COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020. Millions of people were caught off guard as suddenly places such as grocery stores, convenience stores, and restaurants were suddenly closed. The list of possible disruptions may be longer than one thinks.

The sabotage of critical infrastructure is a big concern. So are the various possibilities for electronic disruption of services. Sure, there’s that lingering chance of another pandemic, but thanks to climate change, the shadow of natural disasters such as catastrophic floods, earthquakes, and other natural disasters grows long. At the moment, South Korea is fighting the worst wildfires it has ever encountered. At least 27 people are known dead.

Three days may not seem like much, especially if war were to break out in your neighborhood. What the EU is considering is mitigating the initial impact of such a disruption. In doing so, they are presupposing that governments would be able to respond and offer some form of aid. For Europe, that goal is likely attainable. Germany, France, and Switzerland already have plans in place for such emergencies. Other EU countries are likely to emulate those plans as they consider the risks that lie ahead of them.

In the US, however, the government is likely to move slowly, if at all. There was immense pushback from the states when the initial shutdowns were announced in 2020. There were major protests over mandates to wear a mask in public. Americans have a history of being uniquely stubborn when told what to do. At the same time, however, they fully expect the government to already have a plan waiting in the event of any emergency.

The Washington Post reported this morning that Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi L. Noem and other administration officials are looking to strip FEMA of its role in disaster recovery by October 1 of this year. “Eliminating FEMA will dramatically hurt red states. It will hurt rural areas. It will hurt cities. Places will not recover,” Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Florida) said in an interview Wednesday. Clearly, US officials are not feeling the same threat level as those in the EU.

That may be in part because the US and its tariffs are one of the threats the EU has to consider. Long considered a dependable ally, leaders in France and Germany have been extremely vocal in recent weeks about the region having to ‘rethink’ its strategies in the event that the US prove to be uncooperative in the event of an emergency.

While the US is tearing down its disaster response system, the EU is focused on building up theirs. The EU wants to strengthen its crisis response coordination, by creating a “crisis coordination hub,” building on the existing Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC). The hub will focus on anticipating and managing the consequences of crises across sectors, provide crisis-management support to the lead services and monitor the overall response to crises.

“At the end of the day, we need federal support,” said Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. He added that “all emergency managers nationwide would agree, FEMA needs to be reformed,” but that states and localities are not equipped to handle every disaster alone.

For example, researchers have worried for the past five decades that North America is overdue for a major geological disruption. The USGS, which is in charge of tracking such things, has said previously that it is “extremely likely” that the continent will see another earthquake by 2032. However, as with every federal agency, the USGS staff has been slashed, making it far more likely that no one will be ready for that earthquake when it happens.

There are no guarantees, and no one is ever as safe as they want to think. While no one in the EU or US wants to sound an alarm prematurely, being prepared for any kind of interruption makes more sense now than it has at any time since the end of WWII.

So, maybe look around your house. Would you be prepared? If not, what do you need to do? Do that.