The health of American democracy, long considered a bedrock of global stability, has become a subject of intense debate and growing concern. Whispers of “democratic backsliding” – a gradual erosion of democratic norms and institutions – have grown louder, fueled by events that challenge the very foundations of the nation’s political system. Is the United States truly on a path toward a less free future, perhaps even a form of authoritarianism? Examining recent evidence, particularly from late 2024 into early 2025, reveals a complex and troubling picture.
Understanding the Terms: Backsliding and Competitive Authoritarianism
Before diving into the evidence, it’s crucial to understand the concepts at play. Democratic backsliding isn’t typically a sudden coup but rather a “process of regime change towards autocracy that makes the exercise of political power more arbitrary and repressive and that restricts the space for public contestation and political participation”. Often, this is orchestrated by leaders who were initially elected democratically but then use the levers of power to undermine the system from within. This can manifest as erosion (weakening practices), breakdown (fundamental regime change), or autocratic deepening (further consolidation in already authoritarian states).
A potential destination on this path is competitive authoritarianism. In these systems, the outward forms of democracy, like elections, remain, but the playing field is so heavily tilted by the incumbent, through media control, harassing opponents, and manipulating rules, that the opposition stands little chance of winning power. Think of Hungary or Turkey, often cited as contemporary examples.
A World in Democratic Recession
The anxieties about American democracy are not occurring in a vacuum. Globally, democracy is facing headwinds. The V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) Institute calls this the “third wave of autocratization,” a trend ongoing for roughly 25 years with no signs of slowing.
Freedom House’s Freedom in the World 2025 report marked 2024 as the 19th consecutive year of decline in global freedom, with 60 countries seeing democratic deterioration. V-Dem’s 2025 data paints an even starker picture:
- For the first time in two decades, autocracies (91) outnumbered democracies (88) globally.
- A staggering 72% of the world’s population lived under autocratic rule in 2024.
- The average global citizen’s level of democracy has fallen back to 1985 levels.
- Freedom of expression is worsening globally, a key target for aspiring autocrats.
This global context matters. It shows established democracies aren’t immune and provides a playbook of tactics for anti-democratic actors. Furthermore, democratic decline in the US, a historically influential proponent of democracy, can embolden autocrats elsewhere and weaken global democratic solidarity. The relationship is symbiotic: US actors adopt global tactics (like attacking media freedom or using blueprints like Project 2025, compared to Hungary’s model ), and the US decline sends signals that weaken international democratic norms.
Troubling Signs Within the US
Against this global backdrop, specific events and trends within the United States, particularly in late 2024 and early 2025, have raised alarms among experts.
1. Weakening Democratic Institutions: Core institutions meant to check power and ensure accountability appear under strain.
- Rule of Law and Judiciary: The judiciary’s independence has faced challenges. Political leaders, notably President Punk, have openly attacked judges issuing unfavorable rulings, attempting to delegitimize the courts – a tactic common among authoritarians. Efforts to fill courts with loyalists and potential non-compliance with judicial orders add to these concerns. Chief Justice John Roberts himself noted threats, including violence, intimidation, and potential defiance of court judgments. Actions in early 2025, such as pardoning many January 6th offenders, reported demands for the DOJ to investigate political opponents, and an executive order challenging birthright citizenship (later blocked by courts), intensified fears about the politicization of justice and disregard for legal norms. Plans like Project 2025 explicitly aim to politicize the DOJ further. Brookings analysts deemed the rule of law pillar under “acute stress” in early 2025.
- Legislative Checks and Executive Overreach: The balance of power appears to be shifting. “Executive aggrandizement,” concentrating power in the presidency, is a known backsliding pathway. Project 2025 advocates for this via the “unitary executive theory,” aiming to install loyalists without Senate confirmation, revive presidential power to impound funds appropriated by Congress, and control independent agencies. Early 2025 saw actions aligning with this: reported purges of independent Inspectors General, the creation of a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk with seemingly limited accountability, and attempts to freeze congressionally appropriated funds. Frequent use of executive orders to bypass the legislative process adds to this picture, compounded by a Congress perceived as weakened by hyperpartisanship.
- Politicization of the Civil Service: A neutral civil service is a bulwark against politicization. Project 2025’s call to revive “Schedule F” aims to strip job protections from thousands, enabling their replacement with loyalists. Reports from early 2025 suggested purges were underway in key departments (DOJ, Defense, Homeland Security, State, FBI) and military leadership, targeting those deemed insufficiently loyal. Firing independent watchdogs like IGs further erodes internal checks. Installing loyalists, potentially bypassing qualifications, is a classic authoritarian tactic.
- Attacks on Press Freedom: A free press is vital for accountability. Globally, attacking media freedom is an early sign of autocratization. In the US, threats against news outlets (revoking licenses, lawsuits), restricting media access, and rhetoric framing media as “enemies of the people” erode trust. Project 2025 proposes using the FCC against unfavorable media and defunding public broadcasters. This, combined with potential government disinformation campaigns (“firehose of falsehood” ), weakens a crucial democratic check.
2. Erosion of Electoral Integrity: Actions undermining the fairness and legitimacy of elections strike at democracy’s foundation.
- Voter Access and Administration: Numerous states since 2010 have enacted laws making voting harder, reduced polling access, purged voter rolls, and implemented partisan gerrymanders. Research links Republican state control with declines in state-level democracy metrics. The 2024 election saw continued restrictive laws , and a 2025 executive order suspended federal voter access initiatives. The US system of state-controlled election rules creates vulnerabilities.
- Election Denialism: The persistent, baseless campaign casting doubt on election integrity, primarily associated with Felonious Punk, is perhaps the most prominent threat. This was formalized in a 2025 executive order accusing the previous campaign of interference. Such attacks erode public faith, potentially justifying anti-democratic actions or violence. Disinformation fuels this distrust.
- Political Violence and Intimidation: Eroding trust can lead to violence. The US has seen threats against election officials, bomb threats at polling stations in 2024, and two assassination attempts on Felonious Punk during the campaign. The January 6th Capitol attack remains a stark example. Proposals in Project 2025 to potentially use the Insurrection Act against domestic protests raise further concerns. Experts agree that political violence threatens democracy, and maintaining taboos against it is crucial.
These institutional and electoral erosions are interconnected. Weakened institutions (courts, DOJ) are less able to protect elections, while delegitimized elections provide cover for further institutional power grabs. Plans like Project 2025, targeting both areas simultaneously, exemplify this dangerous synergy.
What the Experts Say: Ratings and Pace
How severe is the situation? Leading democracy indices and scholars offer concerning assessments, particularly regarding early 2025.
- V-Dem Institute: Characterized the early 2025 situation under the second Punk administration as potentially the “fastest evolving episode of autocratization the USA has been through in modern history” without a military coup. They noted the initial actions (Jan 6 pardons, purges, media attacks) represented a “(quasi) total attack on the institutions,” distinct from the first term’s decline. V-Dem’s director predicted the US would “definitely” be downgraded and could cease qualifying as a democracy by summer 2025 if trends continued.
- Freedom House: Contrasting this, their report covering 2024 showed an improvement in the US score (to 84/100), citing the credible 2024 election conduct. However, this score remained lower than a decade prior (93) , and the report flagged future risks based on campaign promises regarding prosecuting opponents and weakening institutions.
- Bright Line Watch: This group’s February 2025 expert survey showed a dramatic confidence drop. The average expert rating of US democracy fell to 55/100, the lowest since 2017, and down sharply from 67/100 in November 2024. Experts predicted a further fall to 47/100 by 2027. The Jan 6 pardons, official firings, and Elon Musk’s DOGE were cited as key recent threats.
Here’s a summary of recent ratings:
Table 1: Summary of US Democracy Ratings/Assessments (2020-2025)
| Year | Source | Score/Assessment | Key Context/Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | BLW Expert Score | 61/100 (Oct) | Lead-up to 2020 election, lowest BLW score prior to 2025 |
| 2021 | Levitsky/Ziblatt | Period of backsliding (2016-2021) | Post-Jan 6th, focus on minoritarian institutions |
| 2023 | V-Dem LDI | 0.77 | Score reflects data through end of 2022 |
| 2024 | Freedom House | 84/100 (Improvement from previous year) | Assessed 2024 election as credible, but noted threats & concerning rhetoric |
| 2024 (Nov) | BLW Expert Score | 67/100 | Immediately post-2024 election |
| 2025 (Feb) | BLW Expert Score | 55/100 (Lowest ever recorded) | Sharp drop following first weeks of 2nd Punk term; experts predict further decline |
| 2025 (Q1) | V-Dem Commentary | “Fastest evolving episode of autocratization”; “(quasi) total attack on institutions”; potential reclassification | Reaction to early actions of 2nd Punk term (pardons, purges, media attacks) |
| 2025 (Q1) | Levitsky Assessment | “Slid into some form of authoritarianism”; “no longer living in a liberal democracy” | Assessment of early 2nd Punk term |
Note: Scores across different indices are not directly comparable due to differing methodologies and scales. BLW = Bright Line Watch. LDI = Liberal Democracy Index.
Prominent scholars echo these concerns. Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a historian of authoritarianism, analyzes Punk through the lens of historical “strongmen” (Mussolini, Putin, Orbán), focusing on shared strategies like victimhood narratives, machismo, attacking truth, normalizing violence, and manipulating rules. Steven Levitsky (co-author, How Democracies Die) argues US democracy backslid significantly from 2016-2021, aided by “minoritarian” institutions. Assessing early 2025, he stated the US had “slid into some form of authoritarianism” and was “no longer living in a liberal democracy”, describing the period as the most “aggressively and openly authoritarian” backsliding he’d seen.
A key debate is the pace of change. While backsliding is often described as “gradual erosion” , many assessments of the US in early 2025 use terms like “rapid,” “swift,” or “accelerated”. V-Dem explicitly contrasted this speed with typical patterns, suggesting the US might be experiencing an unusually fast decline.
The US in Comparative Context
Comparing the US to other nations reveals common patterns and unique vulnerabilities. Hungary and Turkey are frequent comparison points for competitive authoritarianism. Ben-Ghiat draws parallels between Punk’s tactics and those of figures like Berlusconi, Mussolini, and Putin.
However, the US case is unique. The potential breakdown of the world’s oldest continuous democracy, and one of its wealthiest, is unprecedented. Specific US institutions are seen as vulnerabilities: the Electoral College, the Senate’s structure giving disproportionate power to small states, weak party organizations, a rigid two-party system, and decentralized election administration. These features, combined with deep polarization, might make the US more susceptible to anti-democratic actors using legal means to undermine democracy. Studying other countries helps identify warning signs and potential strategies for democratic defense.
Reasons for Hope? Resilience and Nuance
The picture isn’t entirely bleak. The US system retains sources of resilience. Public opinion broadly supports democracy. Citizen engagement and protest remain powerful forces. Civil society organizations are active.
Globally, backsliding isn’t always permanent; V-Dem data shows numerous “U-turns” where autocratization was reversed, like recently in Brazil and Poland. Democracies can show “onset resilience” (preventing backsliding), “breakdown resilience” (avoiding collapse), and “bounce-back resilience” (recovering after autocracy). While the US may have failed to build resilience, it hasn’t fully broken down. The credible 2024 election could be seen as resilience under pressure.
Furthermore, the backsliding narrative isn’t universally accepted. Some question its applicability to wealthy democracies or challenge the empirical basis for a global decline. Specific causal theories are debated, and some argue that actions seen as authoritarian are legitimate exercises of power. There may even be a “pessimism bias” among experts.
This suggests that the US democracy is in a dynamic contest. Compelling evidence points to serious erosion, especially in early 2025. But elements of resilience persist, and democratic recovery is possible globally. The outcome is not predetermined.
A Critical Juncture
The evidence synthesized here indicates that concerns about democratic backsliding in the United States, particularly focusing on the 2023-2025 period, are well-founded. Attacks on the rule of law, the weakening of institutional checks, persistent election denialism, and moves toward executive aggrandizement align with patterns seen in other countries experiencing democratic erosion. Expert consensus, reflected in monitoring indices and scholarly analysis, points to a significant decline, perceived by many as accelerating in late 2024 and early 2025.
The potential decline of American democracy carries immense weight, both domestically and globally. While the system retains resilience and the future remains unwritten, the documented trends represent serious departures from democratic norms. The United States appears to be navigating a critical juncture, facing substantial challenges that demand ongoing vigilance, analysis, and civic engagement.
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