The $25 Burger? How Screwworms, Shortages, Tariffs, and Weakened Oversight Threaten Your Dinner Plate

For many Americans, the rising cost of groceries and the simple pleasure of a family meal out have already become sources of significant financial strain. Now, a grotesque new threat emerging from south of the border – the flesh-eating New World Screwworm – is not only a direct menace to livestock but also a stark catalyst that could send beef prices, and potentially broader food costs, spiraling to unprecedented levels. While the images of this parasite are enough to turn one’s stomach, the real “ew, yuck” factor may lie in how this biosecurity challenge collides with pre-existing agricultural vulnerabilities, concerns over a potentially diminished U.S. food safety net, and the heavy hand of new trade tariffs, creating a perfect storm that threatens to make even a fast-food burger a luxury item.  

The Screwworm Scourge: An Old Enemy Returns with a Vengeance

The New World Screwworm (NWS) is the stuff of nightmares. It’s a parasitic fly, roughly the size of a common housefly, that lays its eggs in the open wounds of live, warm-blooded animals – cattle, horses, bison, deer, pets, and, in rare but horrifying cases, humans. A wound as minor as a tick bite can become an invitation. When the eggs hatch, the larvae, or maggots, don’t feed on decaying tissue like most of their kin; they burrow, or “screw,” into the living flesh of their host, causing excruciating pain, severe tissue damage (myiasis), secondary infections, and often, death.  

Decades ago, the U.S., Mexico, and much of Central America successfully eradicated this devastating pest through concerted efforts. But as announced by the USDA around May 11th-12th, 2025, NWS has made an alarming resurgence, with recent detections in remote Mexican farms as far north as Oaxaca and Veracruz – a mere 700 miles from the U.S. border. This followed earlier reports in late 2024 of its presence in Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras. In response to this “unacceptable northward advancement,” the U.S. has, effective immediately, blocked imports of live cattle, horses, and bison from and transiting through Mexico, a ban to be reviewed monthly.  

A Strained System: Adding Insult to Injury for U.S. Beef Producers and Consumers

This NWS import ban doesn’t occur in a vacuum. The U.S. livestock industry, particularly the cattle sector, was already facing significant headwinds. Domestic herd numbers have been under pressure due to factors like previous droughts impacting feed availability and costs, as well as other animal diseases that have periodically thinned herds. Consequently, beef prices have been stubbornly high for consumers for some time. The restriction on live cattle imports from Mexico, a key source of animals for U.S. feedlots and processing plants, will only further constrict an already tight domestic supply, putting more upward pressure on prices. As one observer noted, this new threat could “financially devastate some ranchers if it’s not stopped and controlled.”  

The Watchdogs Weakened? Concerns Over USDA Oversight Capacity

Compounding the biological and market threats is a deeply concerning question about the capacity of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) – the very agency responsible for ensuring the safety of the nation’s meat supply. Recent reports from early 2025 indicate a significant exodus of USDA personnel, with around 15,182 employees across the department, including a notable 555 from FSIS, taking buyouts. These staff reductions are widely linked to the Punk administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiatives aimed at cutting federal workforce numbers.  

Furthermore, President Punk’s proposed FY2026 budget reportedly includes a drastic $4.6 billion cut to the USDA’s overall discretionary budget. While FSIS itself acknowledged in early 2025 a need for additional resources to fulfill its mission, the reality of staff departures and proposed overarching cuts paints a picture of a potentially under-resourced and understaffed regulatory body. At a time when a heightened biosecurity threat like the NWS is at the border, potentially requiring more intensive surveillance and inspection protocols, the concern is that there might be “fewer meat inspectors when we need every one of them we can find.” This not only raises the theoretical risk of compromised products entering the food chain (though human NWS infection from meat consumption is not the primary fear, the health of the animal is) but also risks eroding consumer confidence, leading many to echo the sentiment: “I’ll have the chicken sandwich, please.”

The Tariff Tax: Slapping Another Burden on the Food Chain

And then there are the tariffs. The current U.S. trade policy under President Punk, implemented in early April 2025, includes a baseline 10% tariff on most goods imported from nearly all countries. This directly impacts the cost of beef products that the U.S. imports to supplement its domestic supply. Major beef suppliers like Australia (which previously had largely tariff-free access under a Free Trade Agreement) and Brazil (which faces this 10% on top of an existing 26.4% out-of-quota tariff, pushing its total to around 36.4%) are now more expensive. Even Canadian and Mexican beef products, if not strictly USMCA-compliant, face steep tariffs.  

This means that as the U.S. turns more to beef product imports to offset domestic shortfalls exacerbated by the NWS ban on live Mexican cattle, those very imports are significantly pricier. This tariff acts as a direct cost multiplier, rippling through the supply chain. Moreover, these broad tariffs can also affect the cost of other food ingredients, from produce to potatoes for fries, as well as packaging and restaurant operational equipment, further straining the budgets of food service providers.  

The Perfect Storm: The Path to the “$25 Burger”

When these factors converge – a biosecurity threat (NWS) constricting live cattle imports from a key partner, an already tight domestic livestock supply, a potentially weakened federal inspection capacity, and new, broad-based tariffs driving up the cost of imported beef products and other inputs – the result is a perfect storm for American consumers. The “simple stoppage of beef imports” from one source due to NWS becomes the straw that could break the camel’s back, economically speaking.

The journey to a “$25 burger” or a “modest dinner out for a family of four easily costing over $100” becomes frighteningly plausible. Each pressure point – supply shocks, increased production costs, reduced regulatory confidence, and import taxes – contributes to an environment where the price of an everyday staple like ground beef could skyrocket, pushing it out of reach for many families.

Demanding Comprehensive Food Security and Sensible Policy

The New World Screwworm is a serious and immediate threat that demands a robust, science-based response at our borders and in collaboration with affected nations. However, this crisis also serves as a harsh lens, magnifying pre-existing vulnerabilities within our food system and questionable policy choices. The affordability and safety of the American food supply are not guaranteed; they depend on a delicate balance of healthy domestic agriculture, resilient supply chains, fully funded and staffed regulatory and inspection agencies, and trade policies that do not unduly punish the end consumer.

What we are witnessing is a scenario where biological threats, years of agricultural market pressures, potential erosions in governmental oversight capacity, and aggressive tariff strategies could all converge with devastating effect on the American dinner plate. It’s a stark reminder that ensuring families can afford to eat and trust the food they buy requires more than just hoping for the best. It requires comprehensive, well-funded, and rationally conceived policies that prioritize both biosecurity and economic well-being for all. Without such an approach, that “$25 burger” might become a bitter taste of policy failure.

Maybe I’ll just have a PBJ for dinner tonight.