Good afternoon.
As you sit down for your meal today, consider this: the stability of our global food system, the very foundation of human well-being, is under unprecedented and escalating threat. We are not just facing isolated challenges; we are confronting a perfect storm of climate change, relentless conflicts, and fragile supply chains that are pushing millions towards acute hunger and jeopardizing what ends up on your plate. This is a crisis that demands our immediate attention, for it touches every single one of us.
The numbers are stark, and they are rising. According to the 2025 Global Report on Food Crises, acute hunger increased for the sixth consecutive year in 2024, with nearly 295 million people in 53 countries facing high levels of acute food insecurity. That’s twice as many as in 2020. Famine has been confirmed in Sudan and is imminent in Gaza, with catastrophic hunger hitting record highs in places like Yemen and Mali. This is not a distant problem; it is a global reality, and it is worsening.
Climate Change: The Unpredictable Harvest
Our planet’s changing climate is arguably the most pervasive and insidious threat to global food security. Rising temperatures, erratic precipitation patterns, and increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events are directly disrupting food production systems worldwide.
Diminishing Yields: A new study published in Nature in June 2025 warns that for every additional degree Celsius of global warming, food production could diminish by an alarming 120 calories per person per day, equating to a 4.4% reduction in daily consumption. By 2050, global crop yields are projected to fall by 8% regardless of emissions pathways. This means “everyone on the planet giving up breakfast,” as one expert grimly put it. While some regions, like parts of Canada and Russia, might see short-term benefits, major breadbaskets like the U.S. Midwest are projected to be “hammered.”
Extreme Weather: Droughts, floods, heatwaves, and tropical storms are becoming more severe, destroying crops, eroding soil, damaging infrastructure, and displacing communities. Unseasonably dry weather devastated cocoa production in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, leading to “unprecedented cost inflation.” Avian flu, exacerbated by extreme weather, drove egg prices to record levels in the U.S.
Nutritional Value at Risk: Beyond quantity, climate change is also impacting the quality of our food. Research presented at the Society for Experimental Biology’s Annual Conference in Antwerp 2025 indicates that higher temperatures and increased CO2 levels are leading to lower nutritional value in crops, especially leafy greens, affecting essential nutrients like calcium and antioxidants. It’s not just about how much food we grow, but “what’s inside that food.”
Pests and Diseases: Warmer winters create more favorable conditions for pests and invasive species, further damaging crops and reducing yields.
Conflict: Starvation as a Weapon
While climate change is a slow-burning fuse, armed conflicts are explosive accelerants of food insecurity, increasingly pushing millions into acute hunger. The 2025 Global Report on Food Crises identifies conflict and insecurity as the major drivers of food crises in 20 countries, affecting nearly 140 million people. As Oxfam starkly warns, “Hunger is no longer just a tragic byproduct of conflict—it is increasingly being wielded as its very weapon.”
Ukraine War’s Lingering Scars: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a global breadbasket, continues to have profound, lingering impacts. It has caused significant disruptions in food and fertilizer markets, pushing agricultural commodity and fertilizer prices to record highs. Ukraine’s agricultural production and exports of wheat and corn have plummeted, while infrastructure for processing and distribution has been destroyed. Russia, meanwhile, is leveraging its own agricultural exports for geopolitical influence.
Disrupted Production and Access: Conflict directly disrupts farming, makes trade and travel routes unsafe, and hinders humanitarian access. The presence of explosive remnants of war renders fields inaccessible for planting or harvesting, long after hostilities have ceased.
Targeting Civilians: Beyond the indirect impacts, warring parties sometimes deliberately poison wells, burn crops, employ sieges, or block humanitarian assistance, leading to acute malnutrition and famine. In Gaza and Sudan, Oxfam notes, conditions reflect “calculated assaults on civilians through starvation by design.”
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: The Fragile Web
Even without the direct impacts of climate or conflict, the global food supply chain is a complex and vulnerable web, susceptible to disruptions that ripple across continents, affecting availability and prices.
Geopolitical Tensions and Tariffs: Ongoing trade wars and geopolitical tensions lead to tariffs, import/export restrictions, and regulatory changes. For instance, U.S. tariffs on imported steel are projected to increase canned food product costs by up to 30 cents per can.
Logistical Bottlenecks: Port congestion, labor shortages, and trucking delays drive up shipping costs. The ongoing Panama Canal drought is slowing cargo transit, impacting food supply chains globally.
Single Points of Failure: The 2022 baby formula shortage, caused by contamination issues at a single plant, highlighted the dangers of over-reliance on single suppliers. Diversifying sourcing is crucial for resilience.
Price Volatility: Extreme weather events and rising input costs (labor, energy, fertilizers) are keeping food prices volatile. Coffee and cocoa prices have surged over 100% in the last year due to climate-related disruptions and underinvestment. Global warming could add up to 3 percentage points to annual food inflation by 2035.
Record Anxiety: A Q2 2025 survey by the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) shows global supply chain anxiety at record levels, with geopolitical instability and tariffs driving fears of major price increases across food and other sectors.
A Call to Action: Securing Our Shared Future
The outlook for 2025 and beyond is bleak. Acute hunger is expected to persist, with humanitarian funding facing its most significant reduction in history. This is not a resource crisis; it is a political and moral one. The world is spending more on bombs than on bread, more on walls than on welfare.
We must recognize that global food security is not a distant, abstract concept. It directly impacts the stability of nations, the health of populations, and the peace of our communities. It demands a bold reset:
- Invest in Climate Resilience: Support sustainable agricultural practices, develop drought- and heat-tolerant crops, and invest in early warning systems.
- Prioritize Peace and Humanitarian Access: Demand accountability for those using starvation as a weapon and ensure rapid, unimpeded passage for humanitarian relief in conflict zones.
- Strengthen Supply Chains: Diversify sourcing, invest in domestic manufacturing, and leverage digital tools and AI for better forecasting and operational resilience.
- Fund Humanitarian Aid: Reverse the alarming trend of funding cuts to critical food and nutrition programs.
The interconnected crises of climate change, conflict, and supply chain vulnerabilities are a test of global leadership and collective conscience. Every person has a right to food, to a stable future, and to live free from the threat of hunger. It is up to us, as a global community, to demand the actions necessary to secure our shared plates and ensure that no one is left to starve by design.
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