A Friendship Betrayed: How the President’s Tilt to Pakistan and Tariff Chaos is Pushing India Away

They were the images of a budding bromance: two populist leaders, cut from a similar cloth, embracing warmly before cheering crowds. U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, each calling the other a “good friend,” projected an image of unprecedented camaraderie between Washington and New Delhi. In India, this bonhomie was hailed as a relationship like no other, a powerful alignment of shared interests and ideologies. But that era of seemingly effortless friendship has crashed headfirst into the harsh realities of the Trump administration’s transactional and often impulsive foreign policy. A series of events, from escalating tariffs and India’s pragmatic purchase of Russian oil to a perceived U.S. tilt toward Pakistan, have injected a palpable and dangerous friction into the once-smooth relationship. Much of this unraveling, unsurprisingly, has played out through the President’s often blunt and reactive posts on social media, leaving policy experts deeply concerned that a strategic bilateral relationship built carefully over decades is now dangerously at risk.

Part I: The Tariff Tantrum

The latest and most public eruption in this strained relationship came last week when President Trump announced a new 25% tariff on Indian goods, layered on top of unspecified additional penalties, all stemming from India’s continued purchase of discounted Russian oil in the wake of Western sanctions. For New Delhi, this move by its largest trading partner is expected to have ripple effects across numerous sectors, but it also ignited a sense of deep unease and, ultimately, outright anger. The situation escalated further when the President took to Truth Social to accuse India’s economy of being “dead.”

Trump doubled down on his attack on Monday, with a fresh barrage of accusations. “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits,” he declared, echoing earlier accusations from his top aide, Stephen Miller, who accused India of financing Russia’s war effort. “They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.”

This public lashing out appears to have stung Modi’s administration, which has been actively engaged in delicate negotiations with the Trump team over a potential trade deal. India had reportedly offered what it considered its “most expansive” trade package in history, including opening up to some American agricultural products – a politically sensitive issue for Modi. The response from New Delhi was initially measured, with India’s commerce minister speaking of ongoing efforts towards a “fair, balanced and mutually beneficial” agreement. However, the Foreign Ministry eventually released a sharply worded statement blasting Trump’s criticism as “unjustified and unreasonable.” Crucially, the statement directly addressed the hypocrisy at the heart of the President’s accusations, noting that India began importing Russian oil as a “necessity compelled by the global market situation” after traditional supplies were diverted to Europe due to the Ukraine conflict. It further pointedly stated: “It is revealing that the very nations criticizing India are themselves indulging in trade with Russia.”

Part II: The Deeper Wound – Kashmir and Pakistan

While the immediate conflict has erupted over trade and oil, the unraveling of the U.S.-India relationship has deeper roots, particularly in President Trump’s apparent warming to Pakistan, India’s long-standing nuclear rival. Tensions between India and Pakistan are perpetually simmering, often focused on the disputed region of Kashmir. In May, a fresh round of military strikes and accusations traded between the two nations raised the specter of a dangerous escalation, only diffused by international intervention.

Against this backdrop, President Trump’s repeated claims of having “brokered peace” between India and Pakistan over Kashmir have landed like a deliberate insult in New Delhi. India has long insisted that Kashmir is an internal matter, fiercely opposing any third-party mediation. For Modi, who has built a domestic political identity on being tough on Pakistan and has actively worked to isolate Islamabad diplomatically on the international stage, Trump’s claims are not just factually inaccurate; they are a direct undermining of his core political standing. Despite India’s quiet dismissal of these claims, the repeated assertions from the White House have fostered a growing sense in New Delhi that the U.S. may no longer be the reliable strategic partner it once seemed.

Adding to this unease is the President’s apparent embrace of Pakistan. Hours after announcing tariffs on India, Trump declared a “massive” oil exploration deal with Pakistan, even suggesting that “some day, India might have to buy oil from Islamabad.” He has also publicly praised Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts and hosted a top Pakistani military official for a private lunch. This sudden admiration for Pakistan, after years of closer U.S.-India ties, has “definitely soured” the mood in India, according to experts. The fear in New Delhi is that if these overtures translate into concrete financial and energy deals, it could significantly “dent the U.S.-India strategic partnership and lead to loss of confidence in the U.S. in Indian eyes.”

Part III: The Strategic Own-Goal

The potential consequences of this diplomatic fracturing extend far beyond a trade dispute or hurt feelings. For years, the burgeoning relationship between the United States and India has been viewed as a crucial element in Washington’s strategy to counter the rising influence of China in Asia. As the Bloomberg analysis highlighted, the “glue” that has often held the U.S.-India relationship together, despite occasional disagreements, has been their shared rivalry with Beijing.

By antagonizing India over a relatively minor issue like discounted Russian oil – a policy that many other nations, including some U.S. allies, have also engaged in – and by appearing to embrace Pakistan, President Trump risks committing a monumental strategic own-goal. If New Delhi comes to view Washington as an unreliable and even hostile partner, the most logical alternative, however uncomfortable given their historical tensions, may be a rapprochement with China. While a deep alliance between India and China is unlikely in the short term, even a thawing of relations would represent a significant geopolitical shift, undermining decades of careful American diplomacy aimed at maintaining a balance of power in Asia.

This is not an isolated incident of the Trump administration alienating key allies. From Canada looking towards Europe to Brazil doubling down on the BRICS grouping and South Africa seeking alternative markets, a pattern of fractured relationships with traditional partners is emerging. This creates a global landscape where American influence wanes, and opportunities open up for rivals like China and Russia to expand their own spheres of influence.

A Testing Time

As Ashok Malik, a former policy advisor in India’s Foreign Ministry, aptly stated, “This is a testing time for the relationship.” President Trump’s personal, transactional approach to diplomacy, seemingly driven by frustration and a desire for immediate leverage, is actively dismantling a strategic partnership that has been painstakingly built over a quarter of a century, with bipartisan support in both nations. The potential long-term consequences for American security and influence in a critical region are profound. What was once hailed as an unprecedented friendship now stands on precarious ground, threatened by impulsive decisions and a failure to understand the delicate nuances of international relations. The world watches to see if this crucial strategic partnership can weather the storm of the President’s erratic foreign policy, or if a friendship betrayed will ultimately pave the way for a dangerous new geopolitical reality in Asia.